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Two prominent Liberal frontbenchers will lock horns in a preselection contest that insiders warn could destabilise the party’s run into the next election.

In a move that will provoke fresh debate around female representation in the Coalition, Jane Hume, the opposition finance spokeswoman, has decided to run for the top position on the Victorian Senate ticket occupied by home affairs spokesman James Paterson.

Jane Hume has been a senator since 2016.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

A peace deal engineered by then prime minister and treasurer Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg before the 2019 election shielded Hume, one of the opposition’s top female MPs, from a challenge by conservative forces, cementing her No.2 position.

But Hume’s intention to vie for the top spot – confirmed by two party sources who could not speak publicly about preselections due to party rules – pits her moderate wing against the Victorian Right faction led by figures including Paterson and lower house MP Michael Sukkar.

Separate sources, also speaking confidentially about internal party matters, revealed state party president Greg Mirabella intended to run for the third spot on the Senate ticket, which will be decided at a preselection convention in November before a federal election due between 2024 and mid-2025.

The Coalition is all but guaranteed to win the top two spots, while the third is more difficult, meaning Paterson and Hume would both probably be re-elected if they could agree on which of the pair should run at the top of the ticket.

Opposition home affairs spokesman James Paterson.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

“This is about pride and status. Jane believes she deserves the spot and has the runs on the board to claim it,” one senior Liberal source said. “James probably has the numbers in the division, so why would he give the spot up?”

The Liberal source said the fight would prove rancorous and may stir disunity within the Coalition’s Senate leadership.

Two of Paterson’s backers said he easily had the numbers within the division, had been picked ahead of Hume by the Victorian division on two previous occasions, and was on track to be a leading Coalition figure in Canberra whose shadow cabinet position was arguably as senior as Hume’s.

An ally of Hume emphasised her work overseeing the party’s election review, leading a push to select more female candidates and running a cost-of-living inquiry, and her high amount of commercial media coverage.

Victorian Liberal Party president Greg Mirabella (left) and state leader John Pesutto in June.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

“She’s not frightening away mainstream voters, she’s bringing them back to the party,” one source said, arguing she was more senior than Paterson because of her role in the Morrison government and was, as one of only three female Victorian Liberal MPs, crucial to helping win back women voters.

Paterson, a leading conservative voice on national security and noted China hawk, was not a minister in the last government but is considered a rising star, and both would probably be cabinet ministers in the next Coalition government.

Hume running for top spot creates an internal contest that would incentivise the Right faction to select voting delegates who oppose Hume. These several-hundred delegates vote in a ballot to select the Senate ticket order.

A contest at the top of the ticket also makes it likely other candidates would enter the field for the first and second positions. This means the loser of the ballot for the No.1 spot is not guaranteed to win in the separate vote for the second spot.

Hume and Paterson have been senators since 2016, though Paterson entered slightly earlier when he replaced a retiring senator months out from that year’s double-dissolution election.

Victorian Liberal preselections are open and former lower house MPs Frydenberg, Tim Wilson and Katie Allen may all face local battles should they chose to run again.

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