There are certain Bachelor and Bachelorette rituals that define the show: rose ceremonies, hometown dates, naked bungee-jumping…you know, normal relationship stuff! Another time-honored tradition occurs on the premiere of each new season, when the Bachelor or Bachelorette gives out the First Impression Rose. And with Peter Weber’s season of The Bachelor premiering Jan. 6, fans are already speculating on who will get his rose.

The First Impression Rose basically says, “Yes, I know you’re competing for my love in a sea of 29 other people, but I see you. Keep up the good work.” The rose was first introduced during season 10 of The Bachelor, and during the first episode of every season since then, you’ll hear the cast talk about wanting to receive it.

But does getting the First Impression Rose guarantee you’ll go far?

It turns out, the First Impression Rose isn’t really indicative of how well a contestant will do during the season.

As this handy table by the Bachelor fandom site reveals, there has only been one Bachelor contestant who’s received the First Impression Rose and then gone on to win the season: Catherine from season 17, who’s still married to star Sean Lowe. But there’s a catch: Sean changed the rules and gave First Impression Roses to a record 12 women he wanted to keep around, so Catherine’s “accomplishment” isn’t quite as impressive as it seems.

Rachel Lindsay, who competed on Nick Viall’s season of The Bachelor, became the first woman to become the Bachelorette after winning the First Impression Rose.

Speaking of The Bachelorette, the First Impression Rose stats are little more promising. A First Impression Rose was first given out during season 4; Bachelorette DeAnna Pappas gave a rose to three men, one of whom—Jesse Csincsak—went on to win the season. (But they broke up after a few months. So, rose schmose.)

Five other contestants from The Bachelorette have received the First Impression Rose and then won the season—in fact, it happened four seasons straight, from seasons 11-14.

Nick Viall is the first man to become the Bachelor after winning the First Impression Rose.

While the data may seem a little shocking, it makes sense when you think about real life. There are times you meet someone and they initially seem great, but it isn’t until a little later that you realize that they’re not for you. When you think about it, it’s pretty much the only time that The Bachelor and The Bachelorette resemble anything like reality.

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